Water-related risks
About this project
Low water periods in Kyrgyzstan are not something extraordinary. They happened, happen and will happen. Unfortunately, the higher the temperature on the planet, the more prolonged and frequent dry periods in the republic will become, causing the Kyrgyz economy, especially more and more damage to agriculture sector. According to the latest Government's announsement over the next two to three years, the rivers will have a low water level, which will negatively affect the fill rate of the republican reservoirs, especially Toktogul, the largest reservoir in Central Asia. Meanwhile, the region in which countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan are located is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of global warming. As a result, we are facing with the melting of glaciers, a decrease in water resources, and natural disasters in the form of droughts and floods are occurring more and more often. The main reason for the region’s vulnerability to climate change is that the development of countries largely depends on the state of natural hydropower. For example, more than half of the population of Tajikistan, receive income from agriculture, in Kazakhstan 66% of the land is subject to drought. According to forecasts, grain yields in the republic may decrease by one third by 2030, and by 50% by 2050. By the end of the 21st century, desertification threatens half of the Kyrgyz Republic. In order to avoid environmental disasters countries have to cooperate in the field of water resources. But, unfortunately, this is precisely the area in which the neighboring states have mutual complaints today. The Toktogul reservoir so far satisfies the needs of the Kyrgyz population for electricity, but this does not mean that the population can spend it recklessly. Water is a limited resource. In order to avoid natural disasters, floods, drought, we must learn to use our water resources efficiently and wisely. Not tough to save, but to be prudent water consumers. Nowadays, the data about daily average inflow, daily average usage and volume of water in the Toktogul reservoir is accessible through observational network of Kyrgyzhydromet. But, Kyrgyzhydromet protects its copyright for the forecast and provides it only on a paid basis, i.e. Kyrgyzhydromet does not provide information publicly for free and even don't have the ability to issue long-term water forecasts for the quarter or season. For the economy of any country, these forecasts would be very relevant. Especially, for Kyrgyz Republic’s rural economy where agriculture is the backbone of the country. It employs about 40% of the country’s labor force and accounts for 20% of the GDP. That’s why one of the directions of my project proposal will be supporting and educating citizens, encouraging them to go beyond the scope of an issue and think differently about water resources. I hope to help them voice up, increase public awareness and urge policy makers to take action through public communication.
Goals and Objectives
Solution design:
1. Digitalize the system of hydrological observations, increase its reliability and efficiency, reduce time of passage of information from a hydrological post to public in a real time scales.
2. Design own methodological base of long-term and short-term forecasts based on the use of statistical approaches.
3. Develop modern forecasting methodologies for rapidly developing floods based on the joint use of meteorological and hydrological models based on Kyrgyzhydromet's appropriate hydro modelling capacities.
4. Develop modern forecasting methodology for river flow hydrographs in large river systems. Preliminary suppositions: Naryn, Chu, Talas rivers.
5. Develop methods for probabilistic forecasts of elements of the hydrological regime.
6. Distributing acquired information through different distribution channels like social media, TV, local radio and administrative units.
Implementation part:
1. Subscription for regularly receiving a data from Kyrgyzhydromet.
2. Creation of reliable, complete and accurate database for publishing. Visualize acquired information for feasibility study.
3. Creation of web-site or/and mobile application with regular updates on water resources.
4. Along with data distribution probabilistic forecasts will be published in a weekly/bi-weekly basis.
5. In order to raise an awareness about efficient and wise ways of using a water resources educational videos, webinars will be published in web-site or/and mobile app in order to educate water consumers.
6. Along with the water usage educational materials, my project will implement educational approach on energy using too
7. Continuously, we will work on viability of this project by including local Government.
The main uncertainty at the moment is how I will be acquiring the data from Kyrgyzhydromet? I have already put efforts in order to agree that they provide the necessary data for a period as their support for the project, while I can spend the project budget on those activities that have a high value added, such as the application, the forecasting methodology, public awareness raising. Unfortunately, some old-fashioned institutions behave quite slow, so I haven't received an answer. That's why I have an alternative (2nd best) budget plan in case of a negative answer and this 2nd best budget keeps core element of the project achievable and opens the opportunity for my project to start working and proves its usefulness how new activities will influence the current practice.
NEEDS / INVESTMENT - First best budget plan
COST
Web-site or/and mobile app designing
€ 1 000,00
Preparing educational materials and other operational costs
€ 2 500,00
ESTIMATE TOTAL
€ 3 500,00
NEEDS / INVESTMENT - Second best budget plan
COST
Subscription for Data from Kyrgyzhydromet
€ 1 000,00
Web-site or/and mobile app designing
€ 1 000,00
Preparing educational materials and other operational costs
€ 1 500,00
ESTIMATE TOTAL
€ 3 500,0
Expected result
I sincerely hope that my public awareness campaigns, educational materials based on accurate data in water and energy usages will help to re-start initial purpose of Toktogul reservoir, which was supplying the water for irrigation to our neighbor countries which can be a base of resolution conflicts. Raised awareness of my country mates to reflect on the way how water resources are managed and to convince to contributing on sustainable water use and and to stimulate thinking and changing their behavior towards water use. By educational materials and statistical approach I will give whole prospective in their current decisions, regarding how water is used will have a profound effect on our future environment. Provide data of water resources and reliable forecasts to water consumers, especially for those who is working in agriculture sector in rural areas. Designed web-site or/and mobile app will be available in Russian and Kyrgyz, in English if needed. So, literally in double clicks people can reach visionary and transparent information. Project realization is vital solution for serious issues like over-exploitation, pollution, unbalanced distribution and water-use conflicts between the bordering countries.
Sustainable Development Goals
About me / organisation
Aikokul Bolotbekova
Kyrgyzstan’s weak economic governance and a high level of corruption remain key obstacles to development of the country. It persuades me to become a qualified professional in economic sphere and motivates me to study further in order to contribute to the effective economic reforms. I am convinced that our governance system needs an inflow of young forward-thinking people. Through my living, learning and working experience in Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, USA, UK, Italy and now in Hungary, as well as traveling over 20 countries, I've found that there is one common problem (its system) shared by both developed and developing worlds. At present, I'm pursuing my Master's degree at Corvinus University of Budapest in Economic Analysis and I am passionate about bringing impactful changes through economic policy and technology in Kyrgyz Republic. I am a 26 year old young professional and well rounded financier, with a strong analytical background and decision-making skills. Knowledge and experience in several mathematical modeling areas, economics, statistical and numerical analysis applied to several fields such as financial analysis, risk & credit analysis and project management. I am a creative person with international experience, passionate for languages and getting to know new cultures, capable of leading groups or working by myself. Reinforce these skills, I participated as a speaker in "Water as catalyst of regional cooperation in Central Asia" workshop which was part of international summit “Water Summit in Budapest” held in Budapest, 2019. Summit was intended for constructing and promoting the water resource connections along the CA countries and I represented Kyrgyzstan’s advancements in its regional integrity and its improvements in water infrastructure and policy. During the Summit I built international professional network through discussions and talks with other professionals, experts in Water Management. Additionally, I participated at various forums (World Youth Forum, Egypt), international summits (Economic Corporation of Silk Road countries, Turkey) and international conferences about women empowerment, green economy and sustainable development.
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